Since February of this year, China aluminum wholesale prices have gone out of the extremely strong “V”-shaped reversal market after experiencing a panic-stricken decline caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. On July 10, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 14,375 yuan/ton, a new high for the year; it was 3,120 yuan/ton higher than the lowest point of 11,255 yuan/ton on April 2, up 27.7%. During the same period, Lum Aluminum also rebounded from a low level, closing on July 9 at 1659 US dollars/ton, up 16.5% from the low point of the year.
This round of rises in wholesale aluminum sheets prices was driven by multiple factors. First, with the improvement of epidemic situation in China, domestic demand for aluminum plate sheets is reviving gradually; Second, the epidemic has led to a significant decline in domestic scrap aluminum recycling, while imports have continued to decline, and the supply of scrap aluminum was once tight, leading to the substitution of primary aluminum for scrap aluminum About 350,000 to 400,000 tons increased; Third, after the wholesale aluminum sheet metal price plunged at the end of March, the entire industry chain stored aluminum: upstream reluctant sales, active stocking by distributors, advance orders in the field of aluminum processing terminals, and large purchases of raw materials by processing companies; fourth, Explicit inventory quickly declined from a high of 1.68 million tons at the end of March to 710,000 tons on July 10, and there was a strong tension in spot supply. Fifth, abnormal speculation in the spot and futures markets appeared to contribute to the rise in aluminum prices.
Will prices for wholesale aluminum sheets continue to rise in the near future? As the basic raw material, the price of aluminum should be stable, especially for large-demanded products like wholesale 5083 aluminum plate for shipbuilding. Historical experience tells us that after a big rise, there must be a big fall, and a suitable and relatively stable whole aluminium sheet metal price is conducive to the healthy development of the aluminum industry chain. Considering comprehensively the factors such as the cost of electrolytic aluminum, the profitability of each link of the industrial chain, downstream consumption and alternative competitiveness, combined with the historical trend of aluminum whole prices, and from the perspective of building a community of destiny in the aluminum industrial chain, we should strive to keep a suitable and relatively stable aluminium price. This will benefit both the suppliers and purchasers from abroad.